Voter turnout in California’s Prop 50 special election exceeds expectations

Early voter turnout in California’s Nov. 4 special election exceeded expectations on the state’s congressional redistricting, a Democratic-led effort to counter Republican efforts to keep Congress under GOP control.

“We’re seeing some very unusual numbers of early ballots that have already been cast, people are returning their ballots,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said Wednesday on a live broadcast with former President Obama.

More than 3.4 million mail-in ballots had been returned as of Wednesday, with Democrats outnumbering Republicans and ballots from Californians who don’t have a party preference, according to a poll run by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell. Mitchell is deeply involved in Democratic efforts, and drafted proposed congressional districts for the November 4 election.

That’s roughly the same vote return in the 2024 White House race between then-Vice President Kamala Harris and then-former President Trump, notable because turnout in presidential elections is higher than in other years.

About a million more votes were cast at this point in the failed 2021 attempt to recall Newsom, but that was during the COVID.

This year’s vote is also particularly significant because Proposition 50 is about the vexed issue of redistricting. Redrawing congressional districts is usually a once-in-a-decade process that takes place after the U.S. Census to account for population change.

California’s 52 congressional districts are currently drawn by an independent voter-approved commission, but Newsom and other California Democrats decided to ask voters to allow half a decade of partisan gerrymandering in GOP-led states to undermine Trump’s efforts to increase his party’s numbers in the House.

Obama, who supported the effort on Proposition 50 and stars in a televised ad, said Wednesday that the ballot measure would affect the entire country.

“A broad principle at stake is whether our democracy can be manipulated by those already in power to extend themselves,” Obama said. “Or, are we going to have a system that allows the people to decide who represents them.”

About 51% of votes returned to date are from registered Democrats, while 28% are registered Republicans and 21% are from voters who do not indicate a party preference.

It’s unclear how those voters cast their ballots, but the Democratic advantage appears to favor Proposition 50, which requires simple majority approval to take effect. About 19.6 million ballots — nearly 85% of those mailed to California voters — remain, though not all are expected to be returned.

Current trends in polling returns at this point show Democrats holding a slight edge over Republicans in California’s voter share. According to the latest state voter registration report, Democrats make up 45% of California’s registered voters, while Republicans make up 25% of all and “no party preference” voters make up 23%. Other party-related California makes up the rest.

Another interesting data point, Mitchell added, is that mail-in ballots continue to flow.

“Usually you see a lull after the first wave — if you don’t mail in your ballot in the first week, it’s going to sit on the counter for a while,” Mitchell said. But ballots continue to arrive, possibly spurred by Saturday’s “No Kings” protests.

A spokesperson for the Proposition 50 campaign said they are not taking anything.

“With millions of ballots still to be cast, we will continue to push to ensure that every Californian understands what is at stake and votes yes on November 4th to stop Trump’s usurpation of power.”

Some Republican leaders have expressed concern that the GOP primary could be stymied by Trump’s past criticism of mail-in voting, errors in voter guides sent to the state’s 23 million voters and conspiracy theories about the design of ballot envelopes.

“While ballot initiatives are nonpartisan, many Republicans are withholding their ballots until in-person voting begins,” said Ellie Hockenbury, a consultant to the No on Prop 50 – Stop the Sacramento Power Grab Campaign Committee. “As this next phase begins — and with nearly two weeks to go until Election Day — we expect the already high turnout to defeat Proposition 50 and stop Gavin Newsom’s partisan power grab to continue.”

Amy Toma, a spokeswoman for two other major groups that oppose the proposal, said the data shows that the voters who have cast ballots so far are not representative of the electorate of California.

“Special elections tend to be more biased, older and whiter than general elections, which is one of the reasons we’re concerned about the speed at which politicians are moving through it,” she said.