The global commercial aircraft fleet is doubling

Right now, the world’s commercial fleet consists of about 26,750 aircraft. If you fast-forward less than two decades to 2044, manufacturers expect that number to reach 50,000. That means the world will need more than 23,000 new passenger jets, not to mention thousands of replacements for older models being retired from service.

When you consider the average price tag is about $100 million each, even after the usual heavy discounts, the amount of money changing hands is staggering. We’re looking at nearly $1.5 trillion in airframes alone. That doesn’t even count the engines, avionics, or the huge maintenance contracts that keep them flying. This explains why the war between manufacturers has never been so brutal.

Duopoly under pressure

For half a century, this market was essentially a two-horse race between Airbus and Boeing. As of late October 2025, Airbus had a backlog of 8,698 aircraft while Boeing sat at 6,534. This number grows even bigger after the Dubai Air Show. Basically, both companies have about fifteen years of full production already sold. But the landscape is slipping under their feet.

Boeing is still paying the price, literally and figuratively, for a decade where financial engineering took precedence over safety and real engineering. The two fatal 737 MAX crashes didn’t just claim 346 lives; They embarked on the longest landing in flight history. The damage to their reputation still lingers. In 2025 alone, Boeing was ordered to pay $28 million to the family of just one victim, among many other lawsuits. Their new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, is an engineer rather than a financier, and he’s promised a cultural overhaul. But you can’t regain that kind of lost ground overnight.

At the same time, Airbus is moving decisively forward in an important direction. They also enjoy a huge lead in modern wide bodies. Their A350 has been in service since 2015. Compare that to Boeing’s competitor, the 777X, which is uncertified and nearing a fifteen-year delay. By the time the 777X finally enters service, it will face a competitor that has already captured much of the replacement segment for the aging long-haul fleet.

Engines: Where the real money is made

While airframes get the headlines, engines are where the profit margins really live. The competition there is tough.

A single large engine for the 777X can list over $40 million. This is sometimes more than the cost of the entire small jet. Long-term lease contracts, often called “electricity by the hour,” have become the norm. Just maintaining a standard engine on a commercial aircraft can cost up to €200,000 per aircraft per month.

Three Western players dominate this space. You have Rolls-Royce, which specializes in large engines for the A350 and the upcoming 777X. Then there is GE Aviation which operates alone or through its extensive partnership with Safran. Finally, Pratt & Whitney is pushing hard with its new technology in small jets like the A220.

Challenges lie ahead

If you look below the original duopoly, the picture is just as intense. Embraer emerged from the Covid crisis stronger than ever with its new E2 jets. These aircraft are very efficient and are the perfect size for the 80 to 150 seat market. The Brazilian manufacturer was effectively forced out of the turboprop business to compete directly with smaller Airbus jets and future offerings from China.

Meanwhile, ATR has secured what is essentially a monopoly on modern regional turboprops now that Embraer has abandoned that particular segment. And then there is China.

The COMAC C919 narrow-body jet has already entered domestic service and made its first international delivery to Lao Airlines in 2025. With heavy subsidies from Beijing, COMAC is expected to target price-sensitive markets in Africa and Southeast Asia and create a new class of competition for the next twenty years.

Western manufacturers may reject what the C919 can do right now, but let’s be honest. Few doubt that a decade of government support and technology transfer will, willingly or otherwise, close the gap faster than the West.

Billion dollar battles behind the scenes

Every cockpit, every flight system, and every radar screen represents another multi-billion dollar war. You have giants like Thales, Honeywell, and Collins Aerospace increasingly struggling with the Chinese ecosystem. They fight for contracts that are worth hundreds of millions of dollars per program and last for thirty or forty years.

The market for happiness is huge

The sheer size of the prize ensures that no one can rest easy. We are looking at a doubling of the world’s merchant fleet in less than twenty years, larger aircraft, and a shift toward sustainable propulsion that will usher in another complete replacement cycle.

Airbus is ahead today, but their production struggles show that even the lead is fragile. Boeing is wounded but still has enormous industrial and political influence at home. Engine manufacturers are locked in a three-pronged technology race that will define profitability for decades. Embraer and ATR have carved out profitable niches. And COMAC, backed by virtually unlimited government resources, is no longer a curiosity. They are a strategic competitor.

In the end, only a few players will share that $1.5 trillion over the next two decades. The fight has never been harder, and this is just the beginning.