Dutch tourism calls for review of VAT increase

Word on the street is that the Dutch are paying big from VAT hikes on hotels and holiday parks. However, economists are raising red flags. In January 2026, VAT will increase from 9% to 21%. It might take a chunk out of Dutch tourism, cost jobs, and even change the government itself. ABN AMRO’s analysis pulls no punches, suggesting the projected gains are a mirage, warning that the policy could destroy tulip fields.

Financial concept

The logic of the Dutch cabinet seems clear enough: reduce VAT to 21% on all overnight stays – hotels, hostels, you name it – and pocket €1.2 billion each year, roughly €910 million from hotels and €302 million from the rest. But ABN AMRO, after examining the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) figures, called them scandalous. Only a third of hotel revenue (34.8%) comes under even higher VAT, as business types (who get VAT back) and extra costs such as meals are not taxed at all. Real take? Maybe €285 million—if hotels don’t cut prices to compete.

And that’s not the worst. Profitability can take a serious beating. Hotels in the Netherlands to generate at least 571 million euros in 2022; After the VAT jump, many may actually lose money, losing €147 million in corporate tax money. Stef Driesen, ABN AMRO’s go-to man for hotels and leisure, is very clear: “This means a €147 million loss to the government, leaving hotels to invest in green upgrades or better working conditions.” The result? Lost taxes from suppliers and related businesses may cancel out VAT gains, leaving the Treasury worse off than before.

Goodbye Germans, Hello Border Blues

The pain won’t just be on paper – it means empty rooms all around. ABN AMRO thinks we could see a 6.75% drop in hotels if owners try to eat some costs. But Dutch tourism experts say it could be worse: as many as a third of foreign visitors, particularly budget-conscious Germans and Belgians, may go elsewhere for cheaper options. This adds up to a €511 million VAT loss from tourists not spending their money.

Even Dutch travelers are looking to get away—why splurge on Zeeland bungalows when Belgium’s VAT is only 6%? Koninklijke Horeca Nederland (KHN) restaurant group is worried about a possible 30% drop in overnight stays, making things worse. Border regions like Limburg, Gelderland and Zeeland could be hit hard: tourism taxes dry up, hotel values ​​drop, and property taxes follow. “The government seems to be missing the broader economic consequences of this move,” Drayson points out.

From farms to fine dining

Tourism is not just about itself – it helps everyone. This VAT can hurt restaurants, museums, shops, car rentals, and even agriculture, such as flower fields and cheese tours, because fewer people visit. In parts of the East Netherlands, approximately 10% of retail sales come from tourists; Slow down can mean empty shelves and layoffs.

Hoteliers, already struggling with high energy costs, wages and inflation, are worried about the bottom line. “The industry has barely recovered from the chaos of Corona and now they are facing another charge that will put them under a lot of pressure,” says Drayson. Unions, trade groups, and banks are speaking out, calling the policy a way to price the Netherlands out of the tourism game.

Rethink or risk ruin?

ABN AMRO’s view is clear: this VAT plan will “cause real damage to Dutch tourism and the economy.” With countries like Germany and Belgium offering cheaper options nearby, the Netherlands risks being left behind in the travel market. As 2026 approaches, more voices are joining in—industry giants are asking Brussels and The Hague to take a second look. Will they change course to save the €20 billion tourism industry, or will they move on? Is the nation risking its economic future? Right now, the alarms are sounding, yet the government seems to be moving – dangerously close to a potential crisis.