Contributor: Four votes on Tuesday that will shape the nation (or at least the narrative)

Tuesday is election day, and as usual, the pundits are disheartened, the forecasters are skeptical and the consultants are already counting their guards. But make no mistake: off-year elections are important. Tuesday’s results will shape the political landscape in 2026 and beyond.

Let’s start in California, where Governor Gavin Newsom has decided to take on Texas Republican Gary Meandering with a little creative cartography of his own.

Proposition 50, which began as the “Election Fraud Response Act,” would not help level the playing field by giving only five House seats to Democrats; It will also boost Newsom’s presidential aspirations. Polls suggest it will pass.

When it comes to elections with real candidates, the main attractions are in New York, New Jersey and Virginia.

In the New York City mayoral race, Zahran Mamdani — a 34-year-old Democratic Socialist who looks like the kind of guy who might buy albums on vinyl — is leading both former Gov. Andrew Cuomo (running as an independent) and Republican Curtis Silva.

National Republicans already are Mamdani embodies everything Fox News viewers fear.

President Trump went so far He called Mamdani a “communist” and threatened to send the army if he wins.

One thing is for sure: Mamdani is already a symbol. If he wins, he will be proof to progressives that politics can still be fun, exciting and revolutionary. For conservatives, he will be proof that Democrats have gone mad.

If you’re paying attention, these reasons are not mutually exclusive.

Across the Hudson, Democratic Representative Mickey Sherrill of New Jersey (his resume includes stints as a naval officer and federal prosecutor) is a very different kind of politician — the “I’m a competent adult, please click” kind.

Her incumbent opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, is a former state legislator who exudes the kind of energy usually found at bowling alleys and diners. He is the grandson of Italian immigrants, the son of blue-collar workers and the spiritual heir to every man in a tracksuit who screams at a Jets game.

Ciattarelli is dangerously close to winning the governorship in 2021, which should cause concern for Sherrill, who is sitting out 2021. Thin lead.

The real problem for Ciattarelli is Trump, who, despite his bridge-and-tunnel aesthetic, is doing more harm than good in such a state. Hasn’t voted for a Republican president since 1988.

Trump Completion of the Gateway Tunnel Project Didn’t help either. It’s one thing to be loud and famous; It’s another to repeal something to make voter turnout a little less horrible.

Speaking of trips, a few hours south, down I-95, Virginia will elect a new governor. Here, Democrat Abigail Spanberger — former CIA officer, former U.S. representative, professional moderate — is headed for victory against Republican Winsom Earl Sears, the lieutenant governor.

Earl Sears, a Marine, Trailblazer and Good Fly, is about to add “failed gubernatorial candidate” to her resume.

Her biggest headline was the firing of her campaign manager (a pastor who had never campaigned before), which seems like a metaphor for today’s GOP. Her best attack on Spanberger was trying to tie her to someone else (a Democratic attorney general candidate) (sending a violent text about a Republican politician).

Virginia has a history of electing governors from a party that opposes the current president, and Trump’s reduction of DOGE (not to mention the current government shutdown) has a lot to do with the commonwealth.

Depending on how things play out in those states, narratives will be set — storylines that (correctly or not) will tell pundits and voters what kind of candidates they should nominate in 2026.

For example, if Mamdani, who represents the progressive wing, wins, but Sherrill and/or Spinberger lose, the narrative will be that cautious centrism is the problem.

If the opposite occurs, the opposite narrative (radicalism is a loser!) will take root.

The postmortems themselves read: “Progressive Revival,” “Year of the Woman” and/or “Return to Center.” The problem? It is wrong to draw too many conclusions based on Tuesday’s election results.

First, it is wrong to assume that what works in New York City can serve as a national model.

Second, even if Sherrill and Spinberger both win, it’s impossible to know whether they simply took advantage of 2025 being a good year for Democrats.

Still, what happens on Tuesday will have major repercussions. On election day, everyone involved in the midterms and upcoming elections will claim that the results will be what they want. Over the course of a week, narratives will be collected, while heroes and victims will be assigned.

And the rest of us will be right back where we started—anxious, exhausted—and dreading the fact that the 2026 midterm jockeying begins on Wednesday.

Matt K. Lewis is the author “The Bad Rich Politician” and “Too dumb to fail.”