California has one of the tightest gubernatorial races in decades

Today we discuss Texas, overreaction and the wide field of candidates for California governor.

Is there anyone who no A candidate for governor?

i am not. And neither are my two cats. At least they weren’t like in the morning, when we discussed the race before breakfast.

That leaves us just short of the 135 candidates who ran in the 2003 California gubernatorial election. But not much.

I count about a dozen serious candidates, with more to come. Why so many?

opportunity

This is the most widely contested race for governor of California in decades. By comparison, you have to go back at least to 1998, when Lt. Gov. Gary Davis swept the moneybox candidates, Al Chichi and Rep. Gene Harman, in the Democratic primary, then held off Republican Atty. Gen. Dan Longren to win the general election in November.

Now, like him, there is no one who even remotely resembles Prohibition’s leading racer.

Polls in the governor’s race show former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Chad Bianco, the Republican sheriff of Riverside County, narrowly leading the field. But with support for both in the mid-13% to 21% range, we’re not talking about a worldly pair.

Like nature, political ambition abhors a vacuum.

Talking of money bags…

Tom Steer!

yes.

After making a bundle as a hedge fund manager, the San Francisco billionaire and environmental activist has been weary of public office for years. A run for president didn’t work out in 2020, even after Steer spent more than $345 million on his effort. (That’s close to what the Dodgers spent on their 2025 salary.)

So now Steer is running for governor, a move he’s fueled by running $13 million in self-promotional ads saying, yes, he supports the passage of Proposition 50, the Democratic gerrymandering initiative.

What are his chances?

Longtime readers of this column—both of you! – I will understand that I am not making any predictions.

But California voters have never looked happy about rich candidates trying to make it from the political ranks to governor or the U.S. Senate. In fact, over the past 50-plus years, galleries have tried and failed miserably.

Maybe Steer will show policy chops or Razzle and wonder they don’t all have it. But his launch video certainly doesn’t break any stereotypes. Instead, it featured a grab bag of redwood trees, potshots in Sacramento, multicultural images of hard-working-everyday people, a promise to fight, a promise to build more houses and, of course, a dash of rudeness because God forbid, say nothing. “Unreliable honesty” as sworn as a political candidate!

Maybe his fellow billionaire, Rick Caruso, will show more creativity and imagination if he gets into the governor’s race.

At least the Democrats are showing signs of life.

In fact. Dare I say, the mood swing of the party was something from near-suicidal to euphoric.

Winning gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia — not by a little, but a lot – and victories in the down-ballot contests in Pennsylvania and Georgia had a significant transformative effect. (Zahran Mamdani’s mayoral victory in sky-blue New York City was no big surprise when the Democratic Socialists prevailed in the primary.)

Literally overnight, Democrats gained momentum heading into the 2026 midterm elections, while Republicans began to struggle to reposition their party and deliver its message.

All that being said, even before their last year’s performance the widespread reports of the death of the Democrats were pretty much… well, we’ll leave that Mark Twain alone. As analyst Charlie Cook points out, 2024 was a deeply disappointing year for the party. But it wasn’t a disaster.

Democrats to achieve Two seats of the house. There were no net changes in 11 gubernatorial races and legislative races in 44 states. The party lost four Senate seats — and control of the chamber — but three of those losses came in the red states of Montana, Ohio and West Virginia.

“That’s not to say Democrats had a good night in November 2024, but it certainly wasn’t a massacre or party-wide rejection,” Cook wrote in a recent post. “If voters had intended to turn it over to the party as a whole, the results would have been very different.”

Rather than a wholesale ouster of Democrats, the result seems to be the rejection of President Biden and his swift replacement, Vice President Kamala Harris.

What does it mean to pass?

If you’re asking whether Democrats will win control of the House or Senate…

yes?!?

… I have no idea.

Democrats need to pick up three seats to take control of the House, and both history and Trump’s overall approval rating — especially as it relates to the economy — bode well for their chances. The president’s party has lost 20 of the last 22 midterm elections and the least number of seats, according to internal elections, which was four.

That’s why I thought that Proposition 50, set to defeat all but the California Republicans in Congress, was an ugly and unnecessary measure, effectively disenfranchising millions of non-Democratic voters.

An appeals court overturned a Republican gerrymander in Texas last week, putting Democrats in an even stronger position, though the legal battle is far from over. The Supreme Court temporarily stayed the decision, pending a review. And there’s still a Supreme Court decision that could strike down the Voting Rights Act and give Republicans twelve or more seats statewide.

So the fight for control is far from decided.

As for the Senate, Republicans have a very good chance of retaining control, given how the seats contested in 2026 are located in heavily favored GOP territory.

But until the votes are counted, no one knows what will happen. That’s the thing about elections: they help keep people like me honest.