A disruption in reinvention: What air cargo has taught us in 2025, and what will happen in 2026
2025 E-commerce has transformed the air freight industry with increasing demand, uneven recovery of air freight, infrastructure degradation, and increased cargo theft forcing shippers and handlers to rethink operations and security.
Resources in the Americas and proximity to emerging markets have transformed supply chains, with the rise of domestic shipping from Mexico and the expansion of direct shipping links between Asia and Latin America, while partnerships have emerged as important enablers for reliability, digitization and adaptability.
Industry will become more agile, collaborative, and technology-driven by 2026, turning volatility into opportunities despite continued policy uncertainty, infrastructure constraints, and evolving security challenges.
Air Cargo America carried the sentiment that defined the event: 2025 wasn’t just another stagnant year for the air cargo industry, it was a transformative year. Distortion in capacity, pressures on infrastructure, fears of product theft, and the relentless rise of e-commerce have forced the sector to rethink long-held assumptions about how it works. However, the tone in Miami was clear: Air cargo enters 2026 more adaptable, more digital, and more regionally connected than it has been since the pandemic.
Uneven restoration and structural defects
While passenger traffic has strengthened, freight operators have been reminded that belly freight has not fully recovered, and likely won’t return for some time. One respondent noted that although the ongoing expulsion of many airlines from Russian airspace is not always discussed, it is “a silent obstacle to long-haul trans-Pacific operations.”
The result? This year has been marked by unexpected changes in capacity, as carriers serving Asia-America and Asia-Latin America absorb increased demand in the short term.
A new foundation for e-commerce
If 2024 reintroduces volume after slowing down, 2025 will redefine expectations. Customers have now normalized faster convenience, said Casey Nelson, director of business development at Amazon Air.
The company’s on-time performance of 98.9 percent became a benchmark throughout the conference. Nelson summarizes the risks:
“Customer expectations are not static, they evolve.”
For air freight, this means higher demand for later delivery times, faster lifts, online booking, and tighter integration of the first mile and last mile throughout the supply chain.
Infrastructure Stress: A Confrontation Issue
2025 revealed some cracks in the infrastructure, not in major disasters but in day-to-day operational conflicts. Jared Izcoy, executive director of Aliens Ground International, drew attention to what some see as stress: entering the workforce.
“It takes six to eight weeks to flag a new employee at some airports,” Azkoi says.
For processors that are already stretched, this delay directly reduces ramp efficiency. Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has heralded significant progress in digitizing operations, but the industry remains uneven. Some airports aim for 15-30 minute truck turnarounds, while others maintain paperwork and personal service.
While Latin America has made some progress, internal transportation costs and outdated customs procedures continue to increase friction.
Reconnecting America’s Supply Chain
The year 2025 will mark a significant shift in how America thinks about supply chains. Brazil, Chile and Colombia have continued to evolve from “export-oriented” economies into major e-commerce consumer markets, changing flow patterns and encouraging new wide-body shipping services.
Mexico remains the center of gravity, but experts insist that 2025 is a year of “close supply”, not a year of large-scale close supply. Domestic manufacturers increased US shipments, but foreign direct investment flows were dominated by reinvestment rather than new factory projects.
Speakers highlighted new dynamics in the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and Guatemala, which are becoming part of an expanded production base in North America. Direct freight connections between Asia and Latin America, including 777 and 747 routes to São Paulo, Santiago and Bogotá, have helped to diversify sourcing options and reduce reliance on transshipment in the United States.
Safety, security and theft concerns
Merchandise theft emerged as a major concern again in 2025, particularly in Mexico, Brazil and parts of the United States. In response, shippers and handlers are expanding camera-based AI safety monitoring, consolidating high-value warehouse facilities, and relying more heavily on connected trucking networks.
It’s not just high-value electronics or pharmaceuticals that are a concern. Speakers noted that even public goods can be targeted, with organized groups using increasingly sophisticated methods. In May, for example, thieves posing as police officers stopped a truck carrying audio equipment for the cambia band Los Angeles Azules on the Mexico-Puebla highway, seized the weapons, and drove off with the cargo—a striking example of the fraudulent mail schemes that are becoming more common on highways. Such events take advantage of the visual gap during air-to-ground transfers and highway crossings.
Security has been repeatedly identified as one of the top five industry concerns for 2026, and operators have called for more collaboration between carriers, processors and law enforcement.
Partnerships: New infrastructure
Partnerships are the new infrastructure, and the next decade will reward companies that join forces with strategic partners. This is reflected in air carriers deepening their relationships with handlers, technology companies and carriers, and in the growing recognition that no single player can meet demand, go digital, comply with changing regulations, and maintain service reliability alone.
2026: Bonus year of preparation
With that in mind, the executive agreed that 2026 will naturally bring election-year policy risks, uncertainty over the revision of the US-Mexico-Canada agreement, changing demand in Asia and Latin America, continued dependence on shipping, and heightened scrutiny of customs and compliance across the region.
However, the tone was optimistic. Industry enters 2026 more agile, collaborative and technologically capable than ever before the pandemic.
If 2025 was the year the industry learned to navigate through disruption, 2026 may be the year it turns volatility into opportunity.
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