How are transportation leaders navigating the path of U.S. tariffs?
- 2025 saw significant regulatory uncertainty, as false US-Mexico tariff announcements and enforcement disrupted operations, prompting importers to freeze or freeze shipments and increasing reliance on air freight for time-sensitive goods.
- Mexico’s export growth is primarily driven by proximate sourcing rather than large-scale factory placement, while the 2026 USMCA review and border uncertainty are encouraging shippers to diversify routes and rely more on freight forwarders and customs brokers.
- Policy changes are now a constant factor in air freight, reinforcing the need for flexibility, as operators use air freight to maintain flexibility amid changes in tariffs, enforcement actions, and transatlantic regulations.
If there was one word that set the mood during three policy-filled meetings at Air Cargo America, it had to be uncertainty. CEOs described 2025 as the most volatile regulatory year in recent memory, a year in which tariff proposals, enforcement priorities and political messages moved quickly to distort planning cycles and force carriers into reaction mode.
What happened in Miami was the realization that tariff volatility was no longer a complete backdrop. It is now a direct operational variable, influencing booking rhythms, conditional decisions, and carrier behavior on both sides of the US border.
Volatility in tariffs leads to disruption in the supply chain
The participants were clear that the challenge facing 2025 is not the level of tariffs, but the irregular process behind them. Regulations changed without notice, implementation dates were delayed, and rumors disrupted the markets.
Luis Hernandez, executive director of Intermodal Grupo Mexico Transport, summed up the problem well: “Tariffs are announced today, they may be implemented tomorrow, or they may not be implemented.”
The surprise policy prompted importers to speed up shipments to avoid a possible escalation, then halted when Washington signaled a delay. These irregularities have put pressure on the doors of the United States, with air freight frequently acting as a corrective method when time was of the essence.
Even proposals that were never put forward, such as the White House’s threat to impose 50% tariffs on Chinese imports, were volatile enough to change the pattern of exploitation.
Proximity Soring vs. Proximity Sources: Determining the True Trend
Committee members cautioned against mixing near-term sector-related headlines with fundamental data. While Mexico continues to gain strength as a supplier to the United States, the expected wave of foreign plant relocations has not materialized.
Diego RodrÃguez of American Market Intelligence explained this fact: “90% of FDI in Mexico is just reinvestment from companies in Mexico.”
Mexico’s export growth is therefore dependent on proximity to sources, with Mexican producers supplying more to American customers rather than relocating large-scale from Asia. This means that the global tariff environment, particularly the US-China measures, will affect demand patterns even as North American integration deepens.
The USMCA renewal adds another layer of risk
The upcoming 2026 revision of the USMCA is dominating much of the policy debate. Most speakers believe renewal is the most likely outcome, but politically charged negotiations are expected.
Rodriguez also predicted that “Mexico will have to come to the table and make concessions … the USMCA will be renewed next year,” citing energy issues and bias against China.
Uncertainty surrounding the revisions is already prompting carriers to diversify their routes and seek customs advisory support, a practice that airlines say is becoming more widespread.
Lack of predictability at the border increases air freight
For many operators, the most difficult factor in 2025 was the inconsistent implementation of tariff levels at the US-Mexico border. Representatives of the U.S.-Mexico Chamber of Commerce said the unclear guidelines regularly lead to trade goods getting stuck in the process.
These interruptions result in time-sensitive loads frequently being transmitted to aerial networks. Many carriers said the increase in northbound demand reflects shippers trying to bypass unpredictable ground queues as much as possible to avoid tariff time.
Strategic achievements
Another clear theme was the increasing importance of freight forwarders and customs brokers. As tariff regulations change rapidly and enforcement procedures tighten, shippers increasingly rely on brokers to explain policies, verify documents, and develop contingency plans.
Rodriguez described a sharp shift in customer behavior: “We’re seeing carriers come to us and ask: How can we overcome this? What are our alternatives?”
This dynamic has strengthened the position of freight forwarders along the US-Mexico corridor and encouraged major BCOs to centralize compliance oversight.
Competition in Transatlantic Trade
The policy changes weren’t limited to North America this year. Speakers warned that competing emissions regulations, support frameworks and the digital trade agenda could add further uncertainty in the coming year. Although not as volatile as the US-Mexico environment, the transatlantic flow is characterized by regulatory divergence that may affect capacity planning and compliance costs.
Many speakers claimed that political risk has become a permanent operational condition, rather than a cyclical obstacle.
The Unpredictability of Politics: The New Normal
The consensus from Air Cargo America was clear: More volatility is on the horizon. As US-China tariffs continue, USMCA negotiations begin, and an election year approaches, carriers are expanding their supplier bases, diversifying markets, and using air freight to make their networks more flexible.
For air cargo operators, the lesson from 2025 is clear: speed is now the industry’s defining competitive advantage. In a year where political signals have moved markets faster than oil prices, the ability to respond, rather than planning, has become a key differentiator.
The post How are transportation leaders coping with US tariffs? appeared first on Cargo Times.
Post Comment