FedEx publishes Black Friday forecast for European SMEs

Federal Express Corporation, the world’s largest express transport company, has published new insights from a survey of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across Europe that trade internationally.

The results predict strong sales during Christmas, with eight in 10 (81%) expecting holiday sales to be better this year than in 2024.

The survey was conducted in September 2025 and included more than 1,200 SMEs trading internationally in nine European markets.

It explored business sentiment for the 2025 holiday trading season and expectations for global e-commerce festivals such as Black Friday (November 28) and Cyber ​​Monday (December 1).

Survey results show that respondents are optimistic about holiday sales this year, with more than a third of SMBs (36 percent) expecting them to be much better than last year, and two-fifths (45 percent) expecting them to be slightly better. Businesses in Turkey (95%), Poland (88%) and the Netherlands (85%) emerged as the most optimistic countries for the holiday season. Italy (66%), Spain (78%) and the UK (79%) were the least optimistic.

Foreign demand for European goods:

On average, SMEs from the nine markets expected more than a third (37%) of their holiday sales to come from regions outside Europe, showing positive demand for European goods. This ratio was consistent across business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) SMEs. The top five regions where SMEs do international business in Europe are other European countries (77 percent), the United States (48 percent), the Middle East (34 percent), Asia-Pacific countries (31 percent) and Latin America and the Caribbean (22 percent).

E-commerce-led events are expected to deliver measurable impact:

Research shows that the majority of European SMEs surveyed (86%) see e-commerce shopping holidays, such as Black Friday, Cyber ​​Monday and Singles Day, as important for their sales. More than half (54%) consider such celebrations very important, while another third (32%) consider them somewhat important. The overall percentage of agreement on the importance of these festivals was higher among companies that deal in both consumer and commercial goods (94%), while those that only deal in consumer goods (84%) or commercial goods (77%) were slightly lower.

“Our latest numbers show a real sense of optimism from European SMEs about this holiday season,” said Water Rolls, president of FedEx Europe. “The vast majority expect sales to exceed last year’s numbers, with e-commerce holiday celebrations expected to act as a major catalyst for a strong harvest season. The results challenge the assumption that celebrations like Black Friday are pure catalysts for Bitcoin – there are growth opportunities for European B2B businesses to capitalize on as well.”

FedEx proactively addresses customer needs through its suite of intelligent digital solutions designed to improve supply chain visibility, streamline shipments and reduce global delivery times. Through tools like e-commerce documents, customers can simplify customs declarations by digitally uploading documents to ensure on-time delivery. To further support European SMEs expanding their global reach, the FedEx SMB Center provides multimedia resources, business guidance and local market insights, equipping companies with the knowledge and tools to confidently expand and compete across borders.