Column: Has Trump already lost the Latino vote?

For generations, foreign policy gurus have debated the question, “Who lost China? I wonder if election analysts will soon be asking, “Who lost Latinos?”

Almost a year ago, President Trump won a landslide victory in the election. this There was no landslide that boosters claimBut it was decisive. And Trump’s record-breaking success with Latino voters played a huge role.

In 2020, Joe Biden won Latinos by approx 2 to 1 (61% to 36%). Four years later, Trump narrowly defeated Vice President Kamala Harris for the Latino vote (Harris 51% to Trump 48%). He won the Latin Male by 10 points (44 out of 54) – a 33- Point According to Edison Research, 2020 is in his favor. With an impressive showing among black men, the results led many Republicans to claim the GOP was reborn. “The Republican Party is now a multiracial, multiracial coalition of hard-line Americans who love their country,” then-Sen. Marco Rubio announced.

Here’s how Trump put it in his victory speech: “They came from all walks of life. Union, non-union, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American, we had everybody and it was beautiful. It was a historic formation. Bringing citizens of all backgrounds together around common sense. You know, we’re the party of common sense.”

In typical fashion, Trump overstated things (Harris won eight in 10 black votes, almost six in 10 Asian votes, and union voters were slightly skewed for Harris). Still, Trump had every reason to celebrate. Republicans have sought to gain traction with Latino and black voters for decades, and Trump has made serious inroads.

According to every poll, the top priority for Latino voters was the economy. Covid and inflation have hit working-class Latinos the hardest, and nostalgia for Trump’s pre-pandemic economy is high. Trump’s immigration rhetoric has focused on deporting criminal gangs and closing the border, moves that Latinos see as common sense.

The Trump campaign’s most effective ad featured a video of Harris pledging to support taxpayer-funded transgender surgeries for inmates and illegal immigrants in federal custody. Tagline: “She’s for them/them. President Trump is for you.”

The ad was controversial for being “anti-trans” but that wasn’t its appeal. It was the message that Harris cared most about boutique ideological activist causes, not the “common sense” concerns of regular voters.

Fast forward a year, and Latinos are in a very different place than they expected. For the first time, a majority of Latinos (65%) say it is a “bad time“Be Latino in America (although only 38% of Republican Latinos agree). Less than half say they fear for their physical safety and believe that all Latinos — regardless of citizenship status — are targets of Trump’s deportation efforts.

In last year’s election, Latinos made a difference Collectively behind Democratsmore than clear up GOP gains a year ago. It’s worth noting that these voters still said their main concern was the economy, not Trump’s immigration policy. Although one wonders how many voters, worried about being falsely detained, did not risk showing up at the polls.

In the modern era, the single biggest mistake political parties make is reading too much into election returns. The GOP under Trump is especially guilty. Every time Trump does something funny, self-indulgent or just plain weird, one of his biggest fans declares, “I voted for it.»

That may be true for them, but it’s not true for the majority of voters who flocked to Trump based on economic concerns or frustration with Democrats. When a Latino truck driver sees a Video When arresting a Latina mother picking up her child from daycare, it doesn’t take a genius to realize she probably didn’t say, “That’s what I voted for.” The never-ending apologies of crooked friends, the stunning destruction of the East Wing or the tariff-driven chaos work their way through the economy.

Trump’s pride in the diversity of his coalition was understandable, but it did not account for the fact that his coalition was itself diverse. reasons to vote for him. Not every Trump voter is a MAGA diehard. “I voted for it” is not a majority of people. The rest increasingly feels like it is for him that no we – That’s why Trump’s approval rating is in.”Free Fall.”

Trump’s redistricting efforts in Texas were based on the idea that working-class Latinos were as attached to Trump as the billionaire attendees of his Great Gatsby party at Mar-a-Lago. If current trends continue—yet a big if—Democrats could achievement Texas seats in mid-range conditions. One in five Texas Latinos voted for Trump, they say alas this

Debate on “Who Lost Latin?” looming over the horizon, though it won’t be difficult to answer.

X: @JonahDispatch